Data centers are expected to use one-fifth of the electricity generated in the U.S. by 2035, four times that of today, according to a new report from BloombergNEF.
A surge in AI compute will push data center capacity to nearly 200 gigawatts over the next decade, the report predicts. Nearly half of that capacity will be devoted to training and inference, and most of that will remain concentrated in the U.S. By 2033, the country will host 64% of AI chips by power demand.
Based on previous forecasts, those figures could be conservative.
BloombergNEF’s new estimate for electricity demand in 2035 is 83% higher than what the consultancy predicted in December. Other organizations have raised their forecasts, too. EPRI, an electrical industry nonprofit, has more than doubled its 2024 estimate, while S&P’s forecast rose by more than a third between October and April. The revisions reflect the fevered pace of data center development across the U.S.
In the coming decade, BloombergNEF expects the majority of new data centers to hit electrical grids that are already strained. The PJM Interconnection, which spans Virginia to Illinois, will see 34% of its electricity go to data centers, while ERCOT, which covers most of Texas, will have to devote 22% of its generating capacity.
PJM, which already hosts a large number of the country’s data centers, has struggled to cope with connection requests from both large generators and large loads. It paused applications for new sources to connect to the grid for four years, putting it in a precarious position as demand continued to grow.
Though PJM reopened the queue to new generating sources in April, the situation has grown so dire that one utility, American Electric Power, has threatened to pull out of the interconnection. The supply-demand imbalance has pushed electricity prices up 76% over the past year.
Even with the congestion, data centers still want to connect to PJM — they represented 38% of charges in the grid manager’s most recent capacity auction.
Despite the U.S. claiming a majority of AI compute, data centers will continue to grow elsewhere. By 2033, if AI adoption continues along an aggressive trajectory, data centers will create 1,935 terawatt-hours of new electricity demand worldwide, nearly as much as India uses annually.
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