AI startups are eating the venture industry and the returns, so far, are good

Well, the data is out. AI startups accounted for 41% of the $128 billion in venture dollars raised by companies on Carta last year — a record-high annual share. In a sense, though, we knew that. Investors last year were voracious in deploying capital to AI startups, to the point that 10% of startups accounted for half of the funding. 

Those startups included Anthropic, OpenAI, and xAI, which raised double-digit billions last year at sky-high valuations. Actually, they are still raising at an even more astounding velocity. In January, xAI raised a $20 billion Series E. In February, OpenAI snagged a $110 billon round, one of the largest private rounds ever raised, bringing the company closer than ever to a $1 trillion valuation. 

Size-wise, in between OpenAI and xAI was Anthropic, which raised a $30 billion Series G last month at a $380 billion valuation. OpenAI and Anthropic accounted for a heavy chunk of the $189 billion in global venture capital raised last month and, alongside xAI, have teased IPOs for later this year that have left investors foaming at the mouth. 

The state of the venture market is now K-shaped — or bifurcated — in which capital remains concentrated in a select few firms that then back a handful of companies, while everyone else is, well, kinda just there. 

“While funding rounds have gotten slightly harder to raise, the capital for each round has increased,” Peter Walker, head of insights at Carta, told TechCrunch. “So fewer bets, but more capital. AI startups are raising bigger rounds not because they have lots of employees — they don’t — but because the cost of running AI models is high.” 

The latest Carta data also shows that funds raised in 2023 and 2024 (after the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022) have posted the highest internal rate of return (IRR), compared with the declining IRR of funds raised between 2017 and 2020. The report views the increased IRR over the past few years as a positive indicator for the funds backing some of the leading startups emerging from this AI moment. 

“It’s promising that the younger funds have seen IRR start strong,” Walker said, adding, however, that there were a few factors to consider. For one, he said, newer funds might look like they are doing well on paper because if they invested in a seed round, for example, and that company went on to raise a Series A at a higher valuation, then on paper it looks like the investor made high returns in a short time period. 

“This pushes IRR up,” Walker said. “It is also likely that the portfolios of the more recent vintage funds are full of AI-native startups in a way that the portfolios of 2021/2020 funds are not.” 

Time will tell if this early enthusiasm will translate into real returns for investors via exits like blockbuster IPOs or big-dollar acquisitions, or if we are merely in the hype phase of a bubble that will eventually pop.